Analysts Predict Disneyland Will Recover After Coronavirus Closure

Analysts from Touring Plans predict that Disneyland will rebound from the recent closure within 2 months of reopening and see a surge in attendance as guests reschedule their vacations.

Touring Plans uses big data and statistical analysis to calculate daily crowd sizes and ride wait times at theme parks. The Touring Plans analysts say Disneyland is expected to see an initial reduction in attendance after reopening following the COVID-19 crisis before bouncing back with higher than usual crowd levels.

“A pandemic closing the parks is unprecedented,” Steve Bloom, a Touring Plans statistical analyst wrote in a Touring Plans blog post. “We have data from the September 11 attacks that closed the parks and disrupted travel. During the 2008 recession, people reduced spending on vacations. The data for all disruptions in operations shows an initial reduction in attendance and then a bounce back.”

“Once Disneyland reopens, we expect that it will take 8 to 10 weeks for attendance to reach normal levels and then attendance will be above normal as people reschedule their canceled vacations,” Bloom wrote on the Touring Plans blog. “It would take a year for attendance to get back to normal levels.”

Disneyland attendance is expected to be low once the park reopens — with crowd levels at 30% in week 1, 50% in week 3 and 80% by week 6, according to projections by Touring Plans. Touring Plans also projects crowd levels to return to normal 2 months after reopening. At 2 months there will be an influx of guests who rescheduled canceled vacations. The crowds are expected to level off about 5 months after reopening but still remain higher than normal for another 4 months according to Touring Plans data.

About a year after Disneyland reopens, crowd levels should finally return to normal. There are still many unknowns concerning the Disneyland re-opening but the parks should bounce back once they are open again.

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