This question comes from Cynthia, who asks:
HEY Chip & Co? Are there any rumored deals for the end of October yet????
Cynthia, I’m glad you asked that question! This happens to be one of my favorite topics, so you’ll have to forgive me if I completely geek out and give you more information than you ever wanted. Unfortunately, the short answer to your question is “no.” Right now, even our nosiest of writers (and we have some very nosy writers) haven’t heard a thing, and we usually hear a lot of gossip on the issue. So, while I can’t offer you any rumors, I can tell you what we know based on past experience and what we expect to happen. Just keep in mind, none of this is written in stone.
In August 2010, Disney announced a huge amount of discounts for most of 2011. This was the “kids free” and the free dining promotions that went through September of this year. There were also some room discounts thrown in there. Since then, we’ve only seen a few discounts announced. In April, Disney announced a deluxe resort discount and later, in early May, free dining for late August through most of September was offered. Most recently Disney announced a very limited room discount for September. What was different about these two latest promotions was this: They weren’t as good. For example, if you got the free dining promotion for September 2011 before the December 20, 2010 cut off, you saved $90 over the promotion that’s being offered now. That’s not because the dining plan costs more, but because the new promotion requires you to get a Disney photobook with the offer, and that photobook adds another $90. As for the September room discount, it was so limited that when I called on the first morning it was offered, I couldn’t get the resort I needed for my client’s dates.
What was interesting is that concurrently, while Disney was releasing this massive round of discounts last fall, Disney was also telling people that they were going to “wean” the public off discounts. This came from none other than Bob Iger, Disney CEO. And maybe most of us didn’t think it was serious at the time. I remember reading a few articles by travel experts who said that Disney was probably willing to take a hit on occupancy at the resorts in order to bring people’s expectations down. Disney had, after all, gotten everyone used to getting discounts over the past few years, and now they were going to have to change our expectations.
But maybe we’re starting to believe Bob. The newest discounts seem to indicate that Disney is wearing the public off, at least a little at a time. Those of us who are travel agents are being told to encourage our clients to book the earliest possible discount that’s available because subsequent discounts for a covered time-period will not be as good. And this is exactly what we’re seeing. I had a conversation with a Disney manager at Central Reservations the other day who told me that future discounts will be “very limited and for a short-time period.”
If you got through all of this, congrats. Here’s the most important paragraph: Despite all of this, we do expect discounts to come out for fall. Disney still needs to fill rooms, and while they’ve done really well at doing that, the economy is still at a point where many guests still need those discounts to travel. We don’t know when, but I’m hoping it will be like last year, when they announced them in mid-August for fall and beyond. One good indication of future discounts is what Disney offers to our friends in the United Kingdom and they’ve already been offered their free dining and resort discounts for Fall 2011 and into 2012. This is probably the best indication of what to expect in the U.S.
If this is the case, I strongly recommend to anyone planning a Disney trip that they take the discount that they’re offered. I know booking early is hard, but if you have to change your travel dates, quite often even if the booking time frame for the discount has passed, Disney will honor it if your new reservation falls under the covered period for the original discount. If you have to cancel, you’ll get a free refund if you’re 45-days or more (for a package) prior to travel. The deposit to hold a Disney package is only $200. So Disney makes it easy for you. If a better discount comes out later, call Disney and change it yourself; your travel agent should do it automatically.
If I were a betting person, I would bet that the October discount will be free dining, probably the “Memories” package that’s being offered right now, which requires you to purchase the photobook for $90. You’ll likely get free quick service at the values and the free base plan at the moderates and the deluxe resorts. There will also likely be a room discount, hopefully a little more generous than the one that’s currently being offered for September.
We’ll keep you posted, as always. Thanks a lot for your question and for reading the website.
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